Market Briefing 27/02/2013

The markets have finally come out from anaesthesia in the last couple of days. The focus has shifted away from Abe's easing plans, with the Italian election providing a new political headline. This has given the yen a breather, retracing some of the massive moves that we have seen over the last couple of months. EUR was sold in response to concerns over Italian election results, while USD is quietly strengthening more or less in stealth mode against almost all currencies.

I see the short-term yen strength as a buying opportunity and will continue to build up short JPY positions. With the dollar I am a bit cautious. I have a hunch that the USD might once again emerge as the least ugly currency in the short- to medium-term. A reduction in the US trade deficit (less oil imports?) can be the fundamental driver besides the Fed talking about an end of or less monetary easing.

It will be interesting to see the consequences for AUD and NZD if commodities correct further. The high-flyers have a lot of room the fall, particularly against EUR and USD. I will welcome these corrections because I think they will some day provide great buying opportunities, but for now I will not build up big positions in those pairs. Also, RBA is expected to stay dovish, potentially cutting rates to say 2.5% this year.

Interesting times ahead.

Good luck with your investments!

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

How to trade

“I have not failed. I have just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas Edison I don't know about you fellow traders out there, but that is certainly how I feel about my beginnings in the financial markets. It all sounds so simple. You open almost any book about trading and read about how putting an indicatior on your chart can give you entries and exits and will make you rich. Excited about the insight you pull up your chart software and start seeing the described entries all over the place. No way to lose money with this knowledge, right? Well, it's not that easy. And how could it be? Do you really think something like "the 20 period moving average acts as support" is the essence of investing? Huh?? I mean, come on folks! It might work a few times, it might even work in the long run for some people. But the truth is: what these technical, indicator-driven strategies try to do is to exploit a statistical abnormality . Following these rules religiously is very t
Read more

$GBPUSD chart analysis

Image
Look at the break of the massive shelf around 1.5250/1.5375 in GBPUSD. I expect this to be a meaningful change of sentiment for the currency pair. What the heck are the British doing to their money??? Next support zones as marked by the blue lines below current price: S1: ~1.5000/1.5125 S2: ~1.4850/1.4875 Of course I got long within the brokes support around 1.5375 and now I'm in trouble with this one. So I will have to figure out how to reduce the damage.
Read more

Singapore is doing it right

I wish Germany and others would understand. But they are busy trying to get the biggest piece of their pie. http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/one-place-thats-really-doing-it-right-11835/ Thanks Mr. Black, interesting article. Economic permanent residence in Singapore is somewhere around 2.5 million dollars. http://ntlimmigration.com/singapore-immigration Another day maybe :)
Read more