Small caps looking weak
Uuups, Russell 2000 looks like it wants to roll over: Very bearish candle into the bottom of the MAs. So far just a warning sign, but you know, May is coming...
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GBP/CAD: Trend continuation or more downside pressure
Interesting situation in GBPCAD. Long-term the pair is pointing up, but recent weeks have brought substantial downside pressure. We are now coming into an interesting zone where I will position myself for a reignition of the uptrend. Update 16.04.2015 The 161.8% extension on the weekly has completed. I am entering here, chances should be good.
DAX overheated?
With the DAX reaching the 261.8 extension of the "inside" leg, it might be time to tighten the stops and lighten up positions.
Video: The GBPNZD trade
What's happening in my ongoing trade? Fundamentally the NZD is the last western currency which is still paying interest. And kiwi data is still strong with dairy prices (GDT price index) having risen 10.1% last week. How long can New Zealand diverge from the rest of the pack? The charts tell me not too long.
Got bonds?
The 30 year T-bonds have suffered a strong sell-off, but are just now barely touching the 8 period EMA on the monthly. Sounds like I will wet my feet in these waters, for as long as the trend persists.
GBPNZD trade opportunity
With the monthly chart breaking upwards through the MAs all waves have turned bullish and therefore, with a retracement on the daily chart the technical picture suggests a follow through to potentially the 2.20 level. With a little bit of luck, a tight stoploss can be set under 2.0360 (last daily low below current price). Update 04/12/15 The trade is (almost) invalidated, the long side has been rejected strongly. Clearly, the weekly chart has turned bearish, The monthly is only a handful of pips from making a lower low.
