Matter of Money

What's happening in my ongoing trade? Fundamentally the NZD is the last western currency which is still paying interest. And kiwi data is still strong with dairy prices (GDT price index) having risen 10.1% last week. How long can New Zealand diverge from the rest of the pack? The charts tell me not too long.

The 30 year T-bonds have suffered a strong sell-off, but are just now barely touching the 8 period EMA on the monthly. Sounds like I will wet my feet in these waters, for as long as the trend persists.

With the monthly chart breaking upwards through the MAs all waves have turned bullish and therefore, with a retracement on the daily chart the technical picture suggests a follow through to potentially the 2.20 level. With a little bit of luck, a tight stoploss can be set under 2.0360 (last daily low below current price). Update 04/12/15 The trade is (almost) invalidated, the long side has been rejected strongly. Clearly, the weekly chart has turned bearish, The monthly is only a handful of pips from making a lower low.